I Give YouTube 2 Years UNLESS...

Whereas the Internet was a big factor in the last presidential election, YouTube is an even bigger factor in the mid-term election Tuesday. YouTube -- the homemade video clip phenomenon -- has become the repository for every politican's slip up, attack ad, Jon Stewart ha ha and more this political season. But I'm thinking that this election happened to collide with the growing popularity of YouTube. What about in the future? YouTube or future clones will always find a place for politics. It's a dream come true -- wide distribution video -- for no money. The real question is how long will the amatuer video market drive the growth of YouTube? It's my belief that the generation that made YouTube a household name in less than a year can also make it a has-been in short order. I'm saying if YouTube doesn't become the next cable or satellite TV then I give it two years of growth at best. If somehow traditional media giants could grasp the importance of producing short video for this new outlet then the boom can and probably will continue. To keep the revolution rolling on there is a need for a multitude of speciality channels beyond what is currently offered with an easy to use interface for knowing what's on. YouTube is so massive it needs better navigation and search. A big hurdle in the way is their present concept that all TV programs have to be a half-hour or an hour (minus commercials). In the new world -- with multitasking, ADD and endless media distractions -- the major studios and networks are going to have to get into the short video business. George Lucas has already warned the motion picture industry about major generational changes ahead for it. And they thought working out rights deals was going to be the back breaker. That, too! Not to worry. YouTube is just the beginning. The transition from always watching professionally produced programs to having the choice of viewing interesting short episodes or reality clips whenever is underway. We're not going back.